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Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts.
Linton, Natalie M; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Nishiura, Hiroshi.
  • Linton NM; Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto city, 606-8501, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
  • Akhmetzhanov AR; College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, 17 Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei 10055, Taiwan.
  • Nishiura H; Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto city, 606-8501, Japan; Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan. Electronic address: nishiura.hiroshi.5r@kyoto-u.ac.jp.
Epidemics ; 41: 100655, 2022 Nov 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2130795
ABSTRACT
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval-the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual-is shorter than the incubation period-the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI 4.4-5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI] 4.0-4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall's tau 0.5, 95 % CrI 0.4-0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Language: English Journal: Epidemics Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.epidem.2022.100655

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Language: English Journal: Epidemics Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.epidem.2022.100655