Investigating the effects of drought and lockdowns on smallholder and commercial agricultural production in KwaZulu-Natal using remotely sensed data.

ABSTRACT

Not many efforts have been made so far to understand the effects of both the 2015-2016 drought and the 2020 lockdown measures on the agricultural production of smallholder vis-a-vis commercial farmers in Kwazulu-Natal. Google Earth Engine, and random forest algorithm, are used to generate a dataset that help to investigate this question. A regression is performed on double differenced data to investigate the effects of interest. A k-mean cluster analysis, is also used to determine whether the distribution patterns of crop production changed with drought and disruption of agricultural production input. Results show that (1) droughts affected the agricultural production of both areas similarly. Crop cover declined in both areas for one season after droughts were broken. Then recovery was driven by greener, more productive crops rather than the expansion of crop area. (2) The response of both areas to the COVID-19 lockdown was also similar. Both smallholder and commercial areas' Normalised Difference Vegetation Index - a proxy for crop vitality - improved in response to regulations favourable to the sector and improved rainfall. No significant adjustments in crop cover were observed. Production therefore changed primarily at the intensive margin (improved productivity of existing croplands) rather than the extensive (changing the extent of land under cultivation). (3) Cluster analysis allows for a more granular view, showing that the positive impact of lockdowns on agriculture were concentrated in areas with high rainfall and close proximity to metropolitan markets. Both smallholder and commercial farmers therefore are reliant on market access together with favourable environmental conditions for improved production.