Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
The Journal of Economic History
; 82(4):917-957, 2022.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2133059
ABSTRACT
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Language:
English
Journal:
The Journal of Economic History
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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