Modeling COVID-19 transmission between age groups in the United States considering virus mutations, vaccinations, and reinfection.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 20098, 2022 Nov 22.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133574
ABSTRACT
The in-depth understanding of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission among different age groups is of great interest for governments and health authorities so that strategies can be devised to reduce the pandemic's detrimental effects. We developed the SIRDV-Virulence (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated-Virulence) epidemiological model based on a population balance equation to study the effects virus mutants, vaccination strategies, 'Anti/Non Vaxxer' proportions, and reinfection rates to provide methods to mitigate COVID-19 transmission among the United States population. Based on publicly available data, we obtain the key parameters governing the spread of the pandemic. The results show that a large fraction of infected cases comes from the adult and children populations in the presence of a highly infectious COVID-19 mutant. Given the situation at the end of July 2021, the results show that prioritizing children and adult vaccinations over that of seniors can contain the spread of the active cases, thereby preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and minimizing subsequent deaths. The model suggests that the only option to curb the effects of this pandemic is to reduce the population of unvaccinated individuals. A higher fraction of 'Anti/Non-vaxxers' and a higher reinfection rate can both independently lead to the resurgence of the pandemic.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Adult
/
Child
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-21559-9
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