Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 119(49): e2208895119, 2022 Dec 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133964
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term to reduce the ongoing burden from endemic pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models to explore the impact of long-term NPIs on the dynamics of endemic infections. We find that the introduction of NPIs leads to a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect is transient As susceptibility increases, epidemics return while NPIs are in place. For low R0 infections, these return epidemics are of reduced equilibrium incidence and epidemic peak size. For high R0 infections, return epidemics are of similar magnitude to pre-NPI outbreaks. Our results underline that managing ongoing susceptible buildup, e.g., with vaccination, remains an important long-term goal.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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