Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics.
Baker, Rachel E; Saad-Roy, Chadi M; Park, Sang Woo; Farrar, Jeremy; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Grenfell, Bryan T.
  • Baker RE; Department of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Providence, RI 02903.
  • Saad-Roy CM; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
  • Park SW; Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540.
  • Farrar J; Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
  • Metcalf CJE; Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
  • Grenfell BT; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(49): e2208895119, 2022 Dec 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133964
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term to reduce the ongoing burden from endemic pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models to explore the impact of long-term NPIs on the dynamics of endemic infections. We find that the introduction of NPIs leads to a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect is transient As susceptibility increases, epidemics return while NPIs are in place. For low R0 infections, these return epidemics are of reduced equilibrium incidence and epidemic peak size. For high R0 infections, return epidemics are of similar magnitude to pre-NPI outbreaks. Our results underline that managing ongoing susceptible buildup, e.g., with vaccination, remains an important long-term goal.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2022 Document Type: Article