Impact of COVID-19 on cancer diagnosis notifications in the Barwon Southwest region of Victoria

ABSTRACT

Aims: COVID-19 has had much publicised impacts on cancer diagnosis within Victoria. Statewide there are thought to be over 2000 undiagnosed malignancies since the start of the pandemic, particularly in men andwithin melanoma, prostate cancer and head and neck malignancies. Regional and local patterns of presentation may differ from statewide data and local data suggesting under diagnosis may assist in regional service planning. Method(s) Prior statistical analysis using Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) data has been used to identify a shortfall in cancer diagnoses. VCR notifications for 2019-2021 inclusive for the Barwon southwest region were utilised for this review. Notifications for the five most common cancers were assessed for major variations in notifications, taking a pragmatic approach to classify a major variation where notifications changed by more than 10% from 2019 levels in either or both of 2020/2021. Result(s) Total notifications did not change significantly from 2019- 21 (3676, 3777, 3731, respectively). Likewise, there were no obvious reductions in notification by sex or in older patients. While breast cancer notifications dropped in 2021 but rebounded in 2022 (424, 348, 453), diagnoses of DCIS increased each year (36, 55, 68). Lung cancer notifications dropped in 2021-22 (336, 249, 269) as did notifications of colorectal cancer (452, 418, 361), while prostate cancer notifications rose (531, 662, 654) and melanoma notifications were fairly consistent (145, 158, 141). Conclusion(s) Using a pragmatic approach to identifying major variations in cancer notifications during the COVID-19 pandemic, regional data suggests a reduction in lung cancer and colorectal cancer diagnoses in our region. Unlike reported statewide data, there was not an obvious drop in notifications of prostate cancer or melanoma. Further analysis of this data may help better identify cohorts with under diagnosis in our region.