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Magnitude of COVID-19 deaths relative to other leading causes of death: a global analysis.
Chan, Eunice Y S; Cheng, Davy; Martin, Janet.
  • Chan EYS; Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Centre for Medical Evidence, Decision Integrity and Clinical Impact (MEDICI), Western University Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, Ontario, Canada.
  • Cheng D; Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Centre for Medical Evidence, Decision Integrity and Clinical Impact (MEDICI), Western University Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, Ontario, Canada.
  • Martin J; Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Centre for Medical Evidence, Decision Integrity and Clinical Impact (MEDICI), Western University Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, Ontario, Canada janet.martin@lhsc.on.ca.
BMJ Open ; 12(11): e049689, 2022 11 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2137676
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

To quantify the burden of death that COVID-19 contributes relative to the top three causes of death for all countries.

DESIGN:

We performed uncertainty analyses and created contour plots for COVID-19 mortality to place the number of COVID-19 deaths in context relative to the top three causes of death in each country, across a plausible range of values for two key parameters case fatality rate and magnitude of under-reporting.

SETTING:

All countries that have reported COVID-19 cases to the WHO and are included in the Global Burden of Disease Study by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND

MEASURES:

Monthly number of deaths caused by COVID-19 and monthly number of deaths caused by the top three causes of death for every country.

RESULTS:

For countries that were particularly hard hit during the outbreak in 2020, most combinations of model parameters resulted in COVID-19 ranking within the top three causes of death. For countries not as hard hit on a per-capita basis, such as China and India, COVID-19 did not rank higher than the third leading cause of death at any combination of the model parameters within the given ranges. Up-to-date ranking of COVID-19 deaths relative to the top three causes of death for all countries globally is provided in an interactive online application.

CONCLUSIONS:

Estimating the country-level burden of death that COVID-19 contributes relative to the top three causes of death is feasible through contour graphs, even when the actual number of deaths or cases is unknown. This method can help convey importance by placing the magnitude of COVID-related deaths in context relative to more familiar causes of death by communicating when COVID-related deaths rank among the top three causes of death.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Bmjopen-2021-049689

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: BMJ Open Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Bmjopen-2021-049689