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Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic-law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model.
Córdova-Lepe, Fernando; Vogt-Geisse, Katia.
  • Córdova-Lepe F; Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca, Chile.
  • Vogt-Geisse K; Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile.
PLoS One ; 17(6): e0269843, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2140430
ABSTRACT
The classical SEIR model, being an autonomous system of differential equations, has important limitations when representing a pandemic situation. Particularly, the geometric unimodal shape of the epidemic curve is not what is generally observed. This work introduces the ßSEIR model, which adds to the classical SEIR model a differential law to model the variation in the transmission rate. It considers two opposite thrives generally found in a population first, reaction to disease presence that may be linked to mitigation strategies, which tends to decrease transmission, and second, the urge to return to normal conditions that pulls to restore the initial value of the transmission rate. Our results open a wide spectrum of dynamic variabilities in the curve of new infected, which are justified by reaction and restoration thrives that affect disease transmission over time. Some of these dynamics have been observed in the existing COVID-19 disease data. In particular and to further exemplify the potential of the model proposed in this article, we show its capability of capturing the evolution of the number of new confirmed cases of Chile and Italy for several months after epidemic onset, while incorporating a reaction to disease presence with decreasing adherence to mitigation strategies, as well as a seasonal effect on the restoration of the initial transmissibility conditions.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Chile / Europa Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0269843

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Chile / Europa Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0269843