Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis.
JMIR Public Health Surveill
; 7(4): e24292, 2021 04 07.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2141292
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities.OBJECTIVE:
We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties.METHODS:
We developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions.RESULTS:
Predicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance.CONCLUSIONS:
Community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Universities
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Reviews
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
JMIR Public Health Surveill
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
24292
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