A Simple Non-Invasive Score Based on Baseline Parameters Can Predict Outcome in Patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

We evaluated the role of CRP and other laboratory parameters in predicting the worsening of clinical conditions during hospitalization, ICU admission, and fatal outcome among patients with COVID-19. Consecutive adult inpatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and respiratory symptoms treated in three different COVID centres were enrolled, and they were tested for laboratory parameters within 48 h from admission. Three-hundred ninety patients were enrolled. Age, baseline CRP, and LDH were associated with a P/F ratio < 200 during hospitalization. Male gender and CRP > 60 mg/L were shown to be independently associated with ICU admission. Lymphocytes < 1000 cell/µL were associated with the worst P/F ratio. CRP > 60 mg/L predicted exitus. We subsequently devised an 11-points numeric ordinary scoring system based on age, sex, CRP, and LDH at admission (ASCL score). Patients with an ASCL score of 0 or 2 were shown to be protected against a P/F ratio < 200, while patients with an ASCL score of 6 to 8 were shown to be at risk for P/F ratio < 200. Patients with an ASCL score ≥ 7 had a significantly increased probability of death during hospitalization. In conclusion, patients with elevated CRP and LDH and an ASCL score > 6 at admission should be prioritized for careful respiratory function monitoring and early treatment to prevent a progression of the disease.