An Analytical Approach to Predict the COVID-19 Death Rate in Bangladesh Utilizing Multiple Regression and SEIR Model

ABSTRACT

The epidemic of COVID-19 has turned out to be a huge fear for the world. There is currently no advisable drug or cure available to treat this condition. According to WHO statistics, COVID-19 has become a progressive lung illness that is spread by respiratory droplets and other forms of contact. According to WHO, there is still no treatment or defensive plan that has risen till the period to encounter the COVID- 19 pandemic that was arisen in China in late 2019. The purpose of our study is to predict the COVID-19 situation by analyzing the death rate, recovery rate, and susceptibility rate with the help of the regression model and SEIR model. Two analytical models (SEIR and Regression) have been used. Our analysis has shown the prediction of the COVID-19 death rate in Bangladesh with the help of a Regression and SEIR model. We have analyzed the instances per million, number of death rates per million from the SEIR and Regression results and compared them with the real-time result. We have used a valid data set of Bangladesh, collected from the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (ICR) from 18 March 2020 to July 18, 2021. Our experimental result shows promising performance. Examples and descriptions are provided to explain the technique. © 2021 IEEE.