Market Conditions and their Effect on Market Clearing Price Forecasting

ABSTRACT

High volatility in deregulated electricity markets is that characteristic that exposes its participants to higher risks. Volatility is due to many, and most of the times unpredictable, factors, ranging from fuel prices, production from renewable energy sources, electricity demand to Covid-19 and energy crisis. This article describes the initial stages of the work that combines signalling with market conditions in order to analyse the factors affecting the clearing prices of the day ahead market in view of enhancing the forecasting of these prices. The proposed forecasting methodology is based on the extreme learning machine (ELM) and it is tested on the German and Finnish markets. © 2022 IEEE.