Differences in the superspreading potentials of COVID-19 across contact settings.
BMC Infect Dis
; 22(1): 936, 2022 Dec 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2162314
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Superspreading events (SSEs) played a critical role in fueling the COVID-19 outbreaks. Although it is well-known that COVID-19 epidemics exhibited substantial superspreading potential, little is known about the risk of observing SSEs in different contact settings. In this study, we aimed to assess the potential of superspreading in different contact settings in Japan.METHOD:
Transmission cluster data from Japan was collected between January and July 2020. Infector-infectee transmission pairs were constructed based on the contact tracing history. We fitted the data to negative binomial models to estimate the effective reproduction number (R) and dispersion parameter (k). Other epidemiological issues relating to the superspreading potential were also calculated.RESULTS:
The overall estimated R and k are 0.561 (95% CrI 0.496, 0.640) and 0.221 (95% CrI 0.186, 0.262), respectively. The transmission in community, healthcare facilities and school manifest relatively higher superspreading potentials, compared to other contact settings. We inferred that 13.14% (95% CrI 11.55%, 14.87%) of the most infectious cases generated 80% of the total transmission events. The probabilities of observing superspreading events for entire population and community, household, health care facilities, school, workplace contact settings are 1.75% (95% CrI 1.57%, 1.99%), 0.49% (95% CrI 0.22%, 1.18%), 0.07% (95% CrI 0.06%, 0.08%), 0.67% (95% CrI 0.31%, 1.21%), 0.33% (95% CrI 0.13%, 0.94%), 0.32% (95% CrI 0.21%, 0.60%), respectively.CONCLUSION:
The different potentials of superspreading in contact settings highlighted the need to continuously monitoring the transmissibility accompanied with the dispersion parameter, to timely identify high risk settings favoring the occurrence of SSEs.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12879-022-07928-9
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