Analysis of the Reciprocal Feedback between Glacier Tourism Development and Regional Economic Growth in Hailuogou

ABSTRACT

Ice and snow tourism has yielded considerable socioeconomic benefits, especially for the countries and regions that are rich in ice and snow resources. Boosted by the Beijing Winter Olympics, China's ice and snow tourism economy is likely to usher in a period of high-quality development. This study utilized Hailuogou Glacier Forest Park, a relatively well-developed glacier tourism area in China, as the study area. We used data on the regional GDP of Ganzi Prefecture and the comprehensive tourism revenue of Hailuogou scenic area from the period of 1990-2021 to quantitatively analyze the reciprocal feedback relationships between the regional economic growth of Ganzi Prefecture and the development of Hailuogou glacier tourism. The analyses were performed through the construction of a VAR model and through conducting robustness tests using the instrumental variable method. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between regional economic growth in Ganzi Prefecture and tourism development in the Hailuogou scenic area, with each 1% increase in the former driving a corresponding growth of 2.01% in the latter. There is an asymmetric reciprocal feedback relationship between the economic growth of Ganzi Prefecture and the development of tourism in the Hailuogou scenic area. Economic growth in Ganzi Prefecture significantly contributes to the development of glacier tourism in Hailuogou over a longer period of time, with a contribution rate of 49%;meanwhile, the development of tourism in the Hailuogou scenic area has a limited effect on the quality and acceleration of economic development in Ganzi Prefecture, with a contribution rate of 16%. Based on the above results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed to provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the high-quality development of the Hailuogou scenic area in the post-COVID-19 and post-Winter Olympics era.