COVID-19 and trust among the young: mishandled public health and other disasters Erode young people's trust in politicians for years

ABSTRACT

This article provides the first large-scale evidence of the effects of epidemics on political trust for individuals in their impressionable years. It shows how exposure to epidemics, specifically during the impressionable years, durably shapes confidence in government, elections, and leaders. Cohorts of individuals exposed to an epidemic during their impressionable years display lower political trust than other cohorts surveyed in the same country and same year while at the same time controlling for a variety of other social, economic, and personal characteristics. The impact of epidemic exposure is substantial someone who is highly exposed to an epidemic throughout his or her impressionable years, compared with someone with no such exposure, is 5.1 percentage points less likely to have confidence in the government, 7.2 percentage points less likely to have confidence in the honesty of elections, and 6.2 percentage points less likely to approve of the performance of the national leader (where the mean outcomes for these variables are 50%, 51%, and 51%, respectively). Strikingly, there was no similar effect for individuals who still needed to reach their impressionable years or had aged beyond them when the epidemic erupted. These effects decay only gradually as the exposed individual ages. On average, they persist for nearly two decades. Moreover, the effect is specific to political institutions and leaders. Overall, these findings are alarming. It is known that trust in government and scientific experts matters hugely for public acceptance of recommendations and policies. However, suppose a contagious disease outbreak diminishes trust in government and scientists. In that case, one can imagine the danger of a vicious spiral in which an epidemic outbreak diminishes trust, making the epidemic-and its successors-still more challenging to contain.