The global, regional, national, sectoral, economic, and commercial impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the emerging second Cold War

ABSTRACT

This paper suggests that the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war and existing rivalries among future global leaders, such as the USA vs. China, NATO vs. Russia, and China vs. India, may result in a second Cold War. A new global order and an emerging second Cold War will have many impacts on global, regional, national, and political economies and sectors, as well as commercial and business activities. This paper elaborates on the new (de)globalization, diminishing national and regional economic powers, and environmental challenges. Nations will develop new industrial policies and try to secure global supply chains and material flow. At the same time, it is expected that investment in defense, energy, and food sectors will increase to shore up national and regional security. Tourism and other travel-based sectors, such as sports events, might degrow. These wars might deinternationalize the activities of corporations who would need to develop new business processes, organizational forms, and technological capabilities to protect their existing markets and businesses. Based on these arguments and discussions, the paper calls for studies to examine new research ideas and suggest empirical research to expand our understanding and support the informed decision-making of policymakers and managers.