Real-time monitoring of food price policy interventions during the first two years of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has resulted in a shock to agrifood systems around the world, with the potential for low- and middle-income countries to be particularly affected. Although policy responses were more muted than during the 2007-2008 world food crisis, efforts to insulate from supply shocks and ensure local availability during COVID-19 have generally included export restrictions and import tariff reductions, among other responses. In an effort to enable rapid market monitoring and realignment, we develop a new indicator defined as a monthly nominal rate of protection "express" which seeks to indicate how policies enacted are affecting prices domestically in real-time in order to understand how they responded. This analysis examines changes to this indicator during the first two years of the pandemic in 24 low- and middle-income countries for the most-consumed staple cereals of the poor and food insecure. We show that gaps between domestic and international prices declined by a median of 20.3 percentage points compared to the same months in recent previous years. While policies were enacted to mitigate price increases that would have eventually been transmitted to poor consumers, other factors related to international demand and supply chain disruptions may also have contributed to the observed trend in the analyzed countries. Moreover, impacts on prices varied across countries and commodities, depending on region, net trade, and previous gap levels. Finally, this indicator can contribute to examining primary drivers of changes and conducting causal analysis to facilitate adequate agrifood policy responses to support economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.