The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates.
J Econ Dyn Control
; 146: 104581, 2023 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2180393
ABSTRACT
We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Long Covid
Language:
English
Journal:
J Econ Dyn Control
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jedc.2022.104581
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