A Nobel Score to Predict Pediatric Covid-19 Severity in Low and Middle Income Countries

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: COVID-19 affects children less seriously than adults;however, severe cases and deaths are documented. This study objective is to determine sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory indicators associated with severe pediatric COVID-19 and mortality at hospital entrance. METHOD(S) A multicenter, retrospective, cross-sectional study was performed in 13 tertiary hospitals in Bolivia. Clinical records were collected retrospectively from patients less than 18 years of age and positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. All variables were measured at hospital entrance;outcomes of interest were ICU admission and death. A score for disease severity was developed using a logistic regression model. RESULT(S) 209 patients were included in the analysis. By the end of the study, 43 (20.6%) of children were admitted to the Intensive care unit (ICU), and 17 (8.1%) died. Five indicators were independently predictive of COVID-19 severity age below 10 years OR 3.3 (CI95% 1.1 - 10.4), days with symptoms to medical care OR 2.8 (CI95% 1.2 - 6.5), breathing difficulty OR 3.4 (CI95% 1.4 - 8.2), vomiting OR 3.3 (CI95% 1.4 - 7.4), cutaneous lesions OR 5.6 (CI95% 1.9 - 16.6). Presence of three or more of these risk factors at hospital entrance predicted severe disease in COVID-19 positive children. Age, presence of underlying illness, male sex, breathing difficulty, and dehydration were predictive of death in COVID-19 children. CONCLUSION(S) Our study identifies several predictors of severe pediatric COVID-19 and death. Incorporating these predictors, we developed a tool that clinicians can use to identify children at high risk of severe COVID-19 in limited resource settings.