Pediatric injury trends and relationships with social vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multi-institutional analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric injury, particularly relative to a community's vulnerability, is unknown. The objective of this study was to describe the change in pediatric injury during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to prior years, focusing on intentional injury relative to the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). METHODS: All patients <18 years meeting inclusion criteria for the National Trauma Data Bank between 1/1/2016 and 9/30/2020 at 9 Level 1 Pediatric Trauma Centers were included. The COVID cohort (children injured in the first 6 months of the pandemic) were compared to an averaged Historical cohort (corresponding dates, 2016-2019). Demographic and injury characteristics, and hospital-based outcomes were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted odds of intentional injury associated with SVI, moderated by exposure to the pandemic. Interrupted time series analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average modeling was used to predict expected injury patterns. Volume trends and observed vs expected rates of injury were analyzed. RESULTS: 47,385 patients met inclusion criteria, with 8,991 treated in 2020 and 38,394 treated in 2016-2019. The COVID cohort included 7,068 patients and the averaged Historical cohort included 5,891 patients (SD 472), indicating a 20% increase in pediatric injury (p = 0.031). Penetrating injuries increased (722(10.2%) COVID vs 421(8.0%) Historical, p < 0.001), specifically firearm injuries (163(2.3%) COVID vs. 105(1.8%) Historical, p = 0.043). Bicycle collisions (505(26.3%) COVID vs. 261(18.2%) Historical, p < 0.001) and collisions on other land transportation (e.g. all-terrain vehicles) (525(27.3%) COVID vs. 280(19.5%) Historical, p < 0.001) also increased. Overall, SVI was associated with intentional injury (OR 7.9, 95% CI 6.5-9.8), a relationship which increased during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric injury increased during the pandemic across multiple sites and states. The relationship between increased vulnerability and intentional injury increased during the pandemic. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III, Prognostic and Epidemiologic Study.