Spatio-Temporal Variations of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Mexico is one of the countries worst affected by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Analyzing the spatiotemporal spread processes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico is of great significance in terms of preventing its further transmission. This study obtained COVID-19 cases and deaths at the municipality level in Mexico from February 28, 2020, to February 27, 2022, and adopted Hoover index, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and epidemic center calculation to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern of the pandemic nationwide. The results showed that the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico experienced an initial low-level transmission and four concentrated outbreaks. In terms of spatial transmission pattern, COVID-19 cases showed clear spatial clustering characteristics (Moran's I 0.48), and large cities with more social interactions (such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, etc.) were most affected. In terms of the directional characteristics of the COVID-19 impact, the epidemiological center constantly shifted in the northeast-southwest direction due to the changing severity of the epidemic in the northwestern coast and the central part of Mexico during the initial outbreak phase. Accordingly, the centers of the three subsequent outbreaks moved to the southeast, northwest, and southeast. The COVID-19 epidemic spread very rapidly in Mexico, especially in the second phase. In the four concentrated outbreaks, the time for the distribution of cases to form a relatively stable spatial pattern was 99 days, 15 days, 95 days, and 42 days, respectively. But the difference of transmission rate at the state level is significant. The state with earlier outbreaks, such as Mexico City, spreads faster. This study revealed the characteristics and laws of the spread of infectious diseases at the national scale, and provided a reference for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic and future emerging infectious diseases. © 2022 IEEE.