Temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States

ABSTRACT

It is the cornerstone of precise and scientific prevention and control to understand the temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the COVID-19 epidemic. Based on the county-level COVID-19 case of the United States from January 22, 2020 to October 8, 2021, we explored and analyzed the epidemic by using time series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis and gravity center trajectory analysis. The results show that (1) the epidemic in the United States experienced four stages of low incidence, growth, peak and rebound with June 15, September 30 and October 1, 2020 as the cut-off points. (2) The global Moran index experienced a process of 'increase-decrease-increase-stability', with the maximum value exceeding 0.6, indicating that the epidemic has obvious spatial aggregation;the epidemic is dominated by high-high clusters (over 150 counties) and low-low clusters (over 500 counties), presenting a pattern of 'three cores and multiple islands' and 'north-south belt'. (3) In 60% of states, the trajectory of the epidemic center of gravity is near-linear type. The epidemic hotspots in these states were relatively stable over time. In more than half of the states, the curve of the moving distance of the epidemic center of gravity is exponential. These states experienced a very rapid epidemic. This study is expected to provide a reference for evaluating the effectiveness of epidemic prevention measures and determining targeted epidemic prevention measures, as well as accumulate experience for future research on the spread of different infectious diseases in different regions. © 2022 IEEE.