Age-Stratified Model to Assess Health Outcomes of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies, Ghana.

ABSTRACT

We assessed the effect of various COVID-19 vaccination strategies on health outcomes in Ghana by using an age-stratified compartmental model. We stratified the population into 3 age groups <25 years, 25-64 years, and ≥65 years. We explored 5 vaccination optimization scenarios using 2 contact matrices, assuming that 1 million persons could be vaccinated in either 3 or 6 months. We assessed these vaccine optimization strategies for the initial strain, followed by a sensitivity analysis for the Delta variant. We found that vaccinating persons <25 years of age was associated with the lowest cumulative infections for the main matrix, for both the initial strain and the Delta variant. Prioritizing the elderly (≥65 years of age) was associated with the lowest cumulative deaths for both strains in all scenarios. The consensus between the findings of both contact matrices depended on the vaccine rollout period and the objective of the vaccination program.