Spatiotemporal cluster analysis and socio-economic influencing factors of COVID-19 epidemic situation in Hubei Province

ABSTRACT

Exploring the temporal and spatial clustering characteristics of the new type of corona virus pneumonia(corona virus disease 2019, COVID-19) in Hubei Province and the socio-economic influencing factors have essential reference value for epidemic prevention and control. This paper conducted a spatiotemporal cluster analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic data in Hubei Province. According to the clustering results, different epidemic development stages were divided. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the economic and social factors affecting the epidemic development in Hubei Province (except Wuhan City). The results of spatiotemporal cluster analysis showed that the first level spatiotemporal cluster area was Wuhan City from January 31 to February 20, 2020, and the relative risk was 29.08. The second level spatiotemporal cluster areas were Xiaogan, Suizhou, Xiantao, Jingzhou, Jingmen, Yichang, Tianmen, and Qianjiang cities from January 31 to February 6, 2020, and the average relative risk was 1.60. Relative risk(RR) can quantitatively reflect the degree of epidemic risk in a region, help classify risk levels, allocate resources rationally, and formulate epidemic prevention measures. Exploring the socio-economic factors affecting the spread of the epidemic in stages has a great significance to studying the spread of the epidemic. Population density, gross domestic product(GDP) per capita, the proportion of Wuhan's immigrant population, and the intensity of travel within the city have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic. Per capita GDP is the main factor affecting the incidence rate of the epidemic. During the rapid development period, the proportion of the immigrant population and the intensity of travel in Wuhan are important indicators. The "primary transmission" of close contact between the incoming population and the local population in Wuhan plays a major role in the spread of the epidemic. The population density and the proportion of the immigrant population in Wuhan during the outbreak period are the important influencing factors of the epidemic. The community family gathering transmission is the main transmission mode of the epidemic at this stage. In the process of epidemic prevention and control, targeted measures should be implemented according to the differences of epidemic transmission modes in different periods, such as strengthening the publicity of epidemic prevention and control in the early stage of the epidemic, improving personal awareness of epidemic prevention, paying attention to the prevention and control of the imported population, and controlling population flow. In the middle and late stages of the epidemic, we should focus on preventing and controlling local transmission, strengthening the prevention and control of community and gathering activities, maintaining social distance in public places, and effectively preventing the rebound of the epidemic.