The impact of some economic variables on agricultural labor in Egypt

ABSTRACT

The main problem of this research is decreasing of agricultural labor wages during the study period 2007-2020 which is reaching about 11.05 thousand pounds in 2020 compared to the agricultural wages of workers in 2007, which contributes about 17.87 thousand pounds, while the worker's wages are increased in The construction sector (as an alternative sector of the agricultural sector) during the study period, so the migration of workers from the agricultural sector to the construction sector is increased, and according to previous, the crop intensification rate is decreased during the study period (especially in the second period) due to decreasing the unit of farm area due to Encroachment on agricultural lands and increasing the inflation rate, and agricultural investments are decreasing in the agricultural sector, and consequently the percentage of agricultural GDP to total GDP is decreasing from 14.10% in 2007 to 12.10% in 2020. So this study aims to study the most important economic variables affecting on the size of agricultural labor during the study period (2000-2020).by dividing the study to two periods 2007-2013, and 2014-2020, and compare with them by (T test) and estimating growth rate, using multiple regression models to identify the most important variables which was affecting on the size of agricultural labor. Simple regression models were also used to estimate the powers function and write it in its linear form [double logarithmic], after testing data stability by the unit root test using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), and processing them before estimating And the graphical signature of the correlation coefficients of these variables to determine whether they are inactive [correlogram] to know if the model was suffering self- correlation problem or not before obtained the results. It was shown from results that (1) The economic and social changes which were followed by the political events which were happened in the first period of the revolutions (January 2011, June 2013) were never in the interest of agricultural labor, so government should reconsider the set of procedures and policies that would restructure agricultural activity to ensure Stability in the situation of agricultural labor, especially seasonal labor, and benefiting from skilled labor from it, which led to have decreasing agricultural labor wages.(2) It was also found that the average percentage of total contribution Agricultural wages in relation to the total variable production costs of the most important strategic crops under study account for a large proportion of the total variable costs by up to 50%. Because of increasing inflation rate, which was affecting on high prices of agricultural commodity, production inputs. and the policy of floating the Egyptian pound that is not commensurate with the prices of agricultural crops, also the economic impact of Covid 19 on the most important of strategy crops to variable costs during the first period average 2007-2013. This led to rising labor migration from the agricultural sector to other sectors. (3) By studying the most important factors affecting on size of agricultural labor, it was found that there is a positive and significant relationship between the size of agricultural labor (in million workers) and total agricultural investments (million pounds). Which means that the increase in the agricultural of labor productivity leads to decreasing the numbers of labor, because of the decision of the investor or producer to dispense with the extra labor because the existing labor maintains the same amount of output. (4) The increase in the state's tendency to export and economic efficiency over the marginal propensity to import in the second period 2014-2020 and the decrease in the state's desire to import, in contrast to the first period, which is characterized by a high marginal propensity to export and import.