Predicting COVID-19 Fourth Wave Incidence in India Using Machine Learning Algorithms and SEIR Model

ABSTRACT

The world is witnessing COVID - 19 Pandemic for quite some time now. India has seen three waves of COVID-19 in the last 700 days. The curiosity still lies in the occurrence and timing of the fourth wave. The current study tries to solve this and predicts the COVID-19 daily incidence in India in the future. State-of-the-art methodologies both from Machine learning (LSTM, KNN, SVR, Random Forest, and Multi Linear Regressor) and Mathematical models (SEIR) have been tried out to train and predict the Daily New Cases of COVID19 in India. Further prediction for the next 200 days has been tried out using the trained models. As per the forecast from most of the models, it is evident that no fourth wave is going to be witnessed in India in the next 200 days. © 2022 IEEE.