Effect of warning signs on the epidemic spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

Early warning signs of the outbreak of pandemic disease become a high profile from the beginning and they remind more susceptible individuals to keep social distance on social occasions. However, these signs have no way to the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) models which have been concerned by medical scientists. Warning signs imply the risk level of the pandemic disease evaluated by the government. The response of susceptible population (S-population) to the warning signs is represented by a chicken game. In order to get a better payoff, the more beneficial behavior of the S-population may be induced in the autonomous society based on the SIR model. We emphasize that participants can choose their strategies whether to follow the health rules or not without coercion in the chicken game while the warning signs released by the policy makers can encourage S-population to choose beneficial behavior, instead of purely following the healthy rules or not. The agile policy helps S-population to make a choice on the basis of risk interests but without losing to protect themselves in a serious pandemic situation. Comparing the classic SIR model with our signal-SIR model, the serious pandemic signal released by the policy makers and the disease awareness to it together play an important role in the outbreak period of the pandemic disease. [ FROM AUTHOR]