Possible Understanding and Model-Based Prediction of Time Evolution of Number of Infected People in COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the time evolution of the number of infected people in Japan since 2020, and important aspects are discovered. It is found out that the time evolution of the number of infected people exhibits two critical aspects of time evolution of infection;that is, the discovered specific intervals between the peak values and the valley values are useful in predicting the next peak. In addition, it is revealed that the time evolution of the increase in the number of infected people in Japan over the present 6th peak is non-linear, which is different from past characteristics since 2020. A possible background mechanism is discussed, and a possible prediction is also introduced. © 2022 IEEE.