Time Series Forecasting of COVID-19 Mortality in SADC region with Facebook Prophet Model

ABSTRACT

This study proposes Facebook-Prophet model for understanding and forecasting of corona virus (COVID-19) mortality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) region over a 90-day time period. Findings showed that COVID-19 mortality in SADC region is expected to degrade in the near future. Model performance metrics were used to compute prediction performance. These results implied that the selected model was satisfactory and reliable. Findings of the study are expected to raise situational awareness into better understanding of the pandemic and to provide support for strategic health decisions for better management of COVID-19 disease. Moreover, the study provides a series of recommendations to be followed in order to decline COVID-19 related deaths in SADC countries. © 2022 IEEE.