Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay: A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 20(4)2023 Feb 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2227415
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Case report
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Ijerph20043040
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