Epidemic responses under uncertainty.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 120(2): e2208111120, 2023 01 10.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2227948
ABSTRACT
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty around key epidemiological and economic policy parameters by embedding a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. Uncertainty about disease virulence and severity leads to stricter and more persistent quarantines, while uncertainty about the economic costs of mitigation leads to less stringent quarantines. On net, an uncertainty-averse planner adopts stronger mitigation measures. Intuitively, the cost of underestimating the pandemic is out-of-control growth and permanent loss of life, while the cost of underestimating the economic consequences of quarantine is more transitory.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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