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Epidemic responses under uncertainty.
Barnett, Michael; Buchak, Greg; Yannelis, Constantine.
  • Barnett M; W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.
  • Buchak G; Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Stanford, CA 94305.
  • Yannelis C; University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL 60637.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(2): e2208111120, 2023 01 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2227948
ABSTRACT
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty around key epidemiological and economic policy parameters by embedding a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. Uncertainty about disease virulence and severity leads to stricter and more persistent quarantines, while uncertainty about the economic costs of mitigation leads to less stringent quarantines. On net, an uncertainty-averse planner adopts stronger mitigation measures. Intuitively, the cost of underestimating the pandemic is out-of-control growth and permanent loss of life, while the cost of underestimating the economic consequences of quarantine is more transitory.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2023 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2023 Document Type: Article