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Temporal dynamic characteristics of human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 around the world under the COVID-19 pandemic background.
Cao, Yanxiang; Li, Meijia; Haihambo, Naem; Wang, Xinni; Zhao, Xixi; Wang, Bin; Sun, Meirong; Guo, Mingrou; Han, Chuanliang.
  • Cao Y; The National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders and Beijing Key Laboratory of Mental Disorders, Beijing Anding Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Li M; Advanced Innovation Center for Human Brain Protection, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Haihambo N; Faculty of Psychology and Center for Neuroscience, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Wang X; Faculty of Psychology and Center for Neuroscience, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Zhao X; Faculty of Psychology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Wang B; The National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders and Beijing Key Laboratory of Mental Disorders, Beijing Anding Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Sun M; Advanced Innovation Center for Human Brain Protection, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Guo M; The National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders and Beijing Key Laboratory of Mental Disorders, Beijing Anding Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Han C; Advanced Innovation Center for Human Brain Protection, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1120470, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2228555
ABSTRACT

Background:

The reemergence of the monkeypox epidemic has aroused great concern internationally. Concurrently, the COVID-19 epidemic is still ongoing. It is essential to understand the temporal dynamics of the monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, we aimed to explore the temporal dynamic characteristics of the human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with those of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Methods:

We used publicly available data of cumulative monkeypox cases and COVID-19 in 2022 and COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 for model validation and further analyses. The time series data were fitted with a descriptive model using the sigmoid function. Two important indices (logistic growth rate and semi-saturation period) could be obtained from the model to evaluate the temporal characteristics of the epidemic.

Results:

As for the monkeypox epidemic, the growth rate of infection and semi-saturation period showed a negative correlation (r = 0.47, p = 0.034). The growth rate also showed a significant relationship with the locations of the country in which it occurs [latitude (r = -0.45, p = 0.038)]. The development of the monkeypox epidemic did not show significant correlation compared with the that of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2022. When comparing the COVID-19 epidemic with that of monkeypox, a significantly longer semi-saturation period was observed for monkeypox, while a significant larger growth rate was found in COVID-19 in 2020.

Conclusions:

This novel study investigates the temporal dynamics of the human monkeypox epidemic and its relationship with the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, which could provide more appropriate guidance for local governments to plan and implement further fit-for-purpose epidemic prevention policies.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Monkeypox / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2023.1120470

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Monkeypox / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2023.1120470