A mathematical model of protein subunits COVID-19 vaccines.

ABSTRACT

We consider a general mathematical model for protein subunit vaccine with a focus on the MF59-adjuvanted spike glycoprotein-clamp vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, and use the model to study immunological outcomes in the humoral and cell-mediated arms of the immune response from vaccination. The mathematical model is fit to vaccine clinical trial data. We elucidate the role of Interferon-γ and Interleukin-4 in stimulating the immune response of the host. Model results, and results from a sensitivity analysis, show that a balance between the TH1 and TH2 arms of the immune response is struck, with the TH1 response being dominant. The model predicts that two-doses of the vaccine at 28 days apart will result in approximately 85% humoral immunity loss relative to peak immunity approximately 6 months post dose 1.