A Simulation Model for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 Virus

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has shown a high potential of transmission within the last two years. To interrupt the chain of transmission, it is estimated that 85% of the population must be immune. Since not all society wants to take vaccinations, it is very important to predict how the current precautions will impact the virus development. This paper presents a simulation model framework that can be used to predict the development of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The model was based on SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model but was significantly extended by adding a set of additional changeable parameters and a new layer responsible for modelling the virus spread patterns. To test the capability of the model to predict the virus spread in a hermetic group of people, we run the 28-days simulation of the spread of the 4-th wave of COVID-19 in a shopping mall visited by 6500 agents. The simulation results showed a remarkable relation to the real development of the 4th wave of COVID-19 in a small hermetic community (the gryfi ' nski district in West Pomeranian Voivodeship of Poland).