UNIPOLARITY, MULTIPOLARITY AND BIPOLAR COALITIONS. XXI CENTURY

ABSTRACT

The paper considers the consequences of one of the topical aspects of the complex and, according to some estimates, catastrophic state of the modern world – the collision of conflicting trends in globalization and sovereignty. The downward trend of globalization (not to be confused with internationalization) is observed after the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. It has intensified under the influence of the covid pandemic and sanctions restrictions. Sovereignty trends, including those influenced by these factors have, on the contrary, an upward trend. In the 2020s, the contradictory tendencies of globalization and sovereignty increased the threat of world chaos. The resolution of contradictory tendencies and the formation of a new world order is possible on the basis of one of the models of a (new) unipolar, multipolar or bipolar world. The paper compares the perspectives of each of these actively discussed models of world development. On the basis of the analysis carried out, based on the theory of institutional X-Y matrices and empirical data, the greatest probability is the formation of a bipolar world. Its peculiarity, however, lies not in the crystallization of two "poles of power” in the form of rival states, but in the institutionalization of similar powerful international bipolar coalitions. Their composition was predicted by the author in the book "Institutional Matrices and the Development of Russia…” (Kirdina, 2014) and is confirmed by rесent practice. © 2022, Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.