Commodity supply risk assessment of China's copper industrial chain: The perspective of trade network

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of China's new energy industry, the consumption demand for copper resources is increasing. As a key raw material, copper resources are becoming increasingly important. Taking the demand for copper commodities in China's new energy development as the research background and the international trade environment and pattern of copper supply as the research perspective, this paper makes an overall assessment of the commodity supply risk of China's copper industrial chain from 2010 to 2021 using the complex network and the newly established three-dimensional risk assessment model and finally reaches the following conclusions. The supply risk of commodities in China's copper industrial chain has been rising continuously since 2019 after experiencing fluctuating development in the early stage and a continuous decline in recent years, and there may be a trend of continuing to rise. The supply risk of China's copper industrial chain was gradually reduced from upstream to midstream and downstream, and the supply risk of copper smelting was more severe. The disruption potential risk of China's copper industrial chain was relatively low, and the international import market structure of copper commodities was relatively reasonable. The supply risk characteristics of each link in China's copper industrial chain were different. Due to the influence of import dependence, the copper mining industry had a high risk of trade exposure. However, the smelting and copper processing industries had certain limitations in production management, operation management and technology research and development, and their ability to withstand risks was weak. In addition, the impact of the domestic COVID-19 epidemic ha caused a high industrial chain vulnerability risk. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd