Your browser doesn't support javascript.
[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]. / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia.
Manrique-Abril, Fred G; Agudelo-Calderon, Carlos A; González-Chordá, Víctor M; Gutiérrez-Lesmes, Oscar; Téllez-Piñerez, Cristian F; Herrera-Amaya, Giomar.
  • Manrique-Abril FG; FM: RN. AB. Ph. D. Salud Pública; Ph.D. Investigación Clínica. Investigador, Instituto de Salud Pública. Profesor Titular, Facultad de Enfermería. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. Universidad Pedagógica y tecnológica de Colombia. fgmanriquea@unal.edu.co.
  • Agudelo-Calderon CA; CA. MD. Periodista. M. Sc. Salud Pública.M. Sc. Ciencias. Instituto de Salud Pública. Facultad de Medicina. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. caagudeloc@unal.edu.co.
  • González-Chordá VM; VG: RN. M. Sc. Enfermería. Ph.D. Ciencias de la Salud. Profesor ayudante doctor. Departamento de Enfermería. Universitat Jaume I. España. vchorda@uji.es.
  • Gutiérrez-Lesmes O; OG. RN. Esp. Epidemiologia. M. Sc. Gestión Ambiental Sostenible. Ph. D(c). Epidemiologia. Profesor Asociado, Escuela de Salud Pública. Universidad de los Llanos. Villavicencio, Colombia. oagutierrez@unillanos.edu.co.
  • Téllez-Piñerez CF; CT. Estadístico. M. Sc. Ciencias Estadística. Ph.D(c). Ciencias. Estadística. Profesor, Universidad Santo Tomas. Bogotá, Colombia. cristiantellez@usantotomas.edu.co.
  • Herrera-Amaya G; GH. RN. M. Sc. Investigación en APD. Ph.D(c). Ciencias Enfermería. Profesora Asistente. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia. Grupo de Salud pública. giomar.herrera@uptc.edu.co.
Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) ; 22(2): 123-131, 2020 03 01.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2299528
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND

METHODS:

A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0).

RESULTS:

Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3.

CONCLUSIONS:

Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Case report / Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Colombia Language: Spanish Journal: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Case report / Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Colombia Language: Spanish Journal: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article