[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]. / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia.
Rev Salud Publica (Bogota)
; 22(2): 123-131, 2020 03 01.
Article
in Spanish
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2299528
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0).RESULTS:
Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3.CONCLUSIONS:
Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Case report
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Colombia
Language:
Spanish
Journal:
Rev Salud Publica (Bogota)
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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