Intervention uncertainty, household health, and pandemic☆

ABSTRACT

This study builds a policy choice model wherein household health status responds to the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering an exogenous policy-decision date, the model implies that the government should maintain the current policy if the perceived effects on infection are below a certain threshold. Specifically, the threshold is determined by policy uncertainty and household concerns regarding health service provision, which further controls the announcement effects of the lockdown. Higher policy uncertainty and concerns regarding health services will diminish the positive impact of the lockdown on household health status.