An evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on electricity demand

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to significant changes in electricity demand around the world. Although these changes differ from region to region, countries that have implemented stringent lockdown measures to curtail the spread of the virus have experienced the greatest alterations in demand. Within Australia, the state of Victoria has been subject to the largest number of days in hard lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conduct an exploratory data analysis to identify predictors of demand, and have built a time series forecasting model to predict the half-hourly electricity demand in Victoria. Our model distinguishes between lockdown periods and non-restrictive periods, and aims to identify a variety of patterns that we show to be influential on electricity demand. The model thereby provides a nuanced prediction of electricity demand that captures the shifting demand profile of intermittent lockdowns.