Investigating COVID-19 spillovers in the US economy with a dynamic CGE model
Kybernetes
; 2023.
Article
in English
| Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2238395
ABSTRACT
PurposeThe recent COVID-19 is forcing governments to implement policies on a large scale to counter its spread. A central issue in the economic debate is the effective quantification of the impact that the policies may implicitly have on the economy. This study quantifies the effects of lockdown in the United States.Design/methodology/approach The study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated on a social accounting matrix (SAM). The lockdown policy is applied on the supply side, by using a reduction in the production according to the closing time of each industry. The reduction in the demand is also applied, throughout the contraction of the household consumption that is diversified by the commodities. In order to analyse the pure effect of the lockdown policy, the interventions by the policy makers are not considered in this study.FindingsThe results show an important contraction of productivity in the food industry, the real estate activities, the constructions and the general services.Originality/valueThe contraction produces a fall of the GDP for the whole period analysed, traced by the investments, which includes repercussions on the whole productive system, employment and income of the institutional sectors.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Web of Science
Language:
English
Journal:
Kybernetes
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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