Systematic description of COVID-19 pandemic using exact SIR solutions and Gumbel distributions.
Nonlinear Dyn
; : 1-23, 2022 Sep 29.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2238659
ABSTRACT
An epidemiological study is carried out in several countries analyzing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic using the SIR model and Gumbel distribution. The equations of the SIR model are solved exactly using the proper time as a parameter. The physical time is obtained by integration of the inverse of the infected function over proper time. Some properties of the solutions of the SIR model are studied such as time scaling and the asymmetry, which allows to obtain the basic reproduction number from the data. Approximations to the solutions of the SIR model are studied using Gumbel distributions by least squares fit or by adjusting the maximum of the infected function. Finally, the parameters of the SIR model and the Gumbel function are extracted from the death data and compared for the different countries. It is found that ten of the selected countries are very well described by the solutions of the SIR model, with a basic reproduction number between 3 and 8.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Systematic review/Meta Analysis
Language:
English
Journal:
Nonlinear Dyn
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11071-022-07907-4
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS