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Twice evasions of Omicron variants explain the temporal patterns in six Asian and Oceanic countries.
Chen, Boqiang; Zhao, Yanji; Jin, Zhen; He, Daihai; Li, Huaichen.
  • Chen B; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Zhao Y; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Jin Z; Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
  • Li H; Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 25, 2023 Jan 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2239690
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The ongoing coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged and caused multiple pandemic waves in the following six countries India, Indonesia, Nepal, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Some of the countries have been much less studied in this devastating pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the Omicron variant in these six countries and estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the reproduction number [Formula see text] in these six South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania countries.

METHODS:

We propose a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Hospitalized-Death-Recovered model with a time-varying transmission rate [Formula see text] to fit the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and to estimate the IFR and [Formula see text] in the aforementioned six countries. The level of immune evasion and the intrinsic transmissibility advantage of the Omicron variant are also considered in this model.

RESULTS:

We fit our model to the reported deaths well. We estimate the IFR (in the range of 0.016 to 0.136%) and the reproduction number [Formula see text] (in the range of 0 to 9) in the six countries. Multiple pandemic waves in each country were observed in our simulation results.

CONCLUSIONS:

The invasion of the Omicron variant caused the new pandemic waves in the six countries. The higher [Formula see text] suggests the intrinsic transmissibility advantage of the Omicron variant. Our model simulation forecast implies that the Omicron pandemic wave may be mitigated due to the increasing immunized population and vaccine coverage.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia / Oceania Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-023-07984-9

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia / Oceania Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-023-07984-9