Theoretical analysis of a measles model with nonlinear incidence functions
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
; 117, 2023.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-2240266
ABSTRACT
Measles is a highly contagious respiratory disease of global public health concern. A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with Crowley–Martin incidence function to account for the inhibitory effect due to susceptible and infected individuals and vaccination is formulated and analyzed using standard dynamical systems methods. The basic reproduction number is computed. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, the disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. Using the Center Manifold theory, the model exhibits a forward bifurcation, which implies that the endemic equilibrium is also globally asymptotically stable. To determine the optimal choice of intervention measures to mitigate the spread of the disease, an optimal control problem is formulated (by introducing a set of three time-dependent control variables representing the first and second vaccine doses, and the palliative treatment) and analyzed using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. To account for the scarcity of measles vaccines during a major outbreak or other causes such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a Holling type-II incidence function is introduced at the model simulation stage. The control strategies have a positive population level impact on the evolution of the disease dynamics. Graphical results reveal that when the mass-action incidence function is used, the number of individuals who received first and second vaccine dose is smaller compared to the numbers when the Crowley–Martin incidence-type function is used. Inhibitory effect of susceptibles tends to have the same effect on the population level as the Crowley–Martin incidence function, while the control profiles when inhibitory effect of the infectives is considered have similar effect as when the mass-action incidence is used, or when there is limitation in the availability of measles vaccines. Missing out the second measles vaccine dose has a negative impact on the initial disease prevalence. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.
Bifurcation (mathematics); Cell proliferation; Disease control; Diseases; Dynamical systems; Lyapunov functions; Optimal control systems; Basic reproduction number; Bifurcation; Global public health; Globally asymptotically stable; Incidence function; Inhibitory effect; Mass action; Nonlinear incidence; Optimal controls; Population levels; Vaccines; Optimal control; Stability
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Journal:
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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