Nonlinear dynamic epidemiological analysis of effects of vaccination and dynamic transmission on COVID-19.
Nonlinear Dyn
; 111(1): 951-963, 2023.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2241970
ABSTRACT
This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. We are especially interested in two current topics effect of vaccination and the universally observed oscillations in infections. We use a nonlinear Susceptible, Infected, & Immune model incorporating a dynamic transmission rate and vaccination policy. The US data provides a starting point for analyzing stability, bifurcations and dynamics in general. Further parametric analysis reveals a saddle-node bifurcation under imperfect vaccination leading to the occurrence of sustained epidemic equilibria. This work points to the tremendous value of systematic nonlinear dynamic analysis in pandemic modeling and demonstrates the dramatic influence of vaccination, and frequency, phase, and amplitude of transmission rate on the persistent dynamic behavior of the disease.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Systematic review/Meta Analysis
Topics:
Vaccines
Language:
English
Journal:
Nonlinear Dyn
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11071-022-08125-8
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