Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model

ABSTRACT

Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number R0 is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic.