Impact assessment of China?s inter-provincial trade on trade-related sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

Assessing progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is among the most pressing areas for sustainability research. Both international and inter-provincial trade has substantial impacts on sustainability. However, little is known about the impacts of inter-provincial trade on progress towards achieving the SDG targets and the relationships among SDG indicators through time and space. Here we, taking Chinese inter-provincial trade as a study case, used a spatiotemporal approach and the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to examine changes in six SDG indicators and their relationships within China in the year 2002, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017. The results showed that (1) Chinese inter-provincial trade improved the trade-related SDG target scores of 16 provinces out of the evaluated 30 provinces but reduced the trade-related SDG target scores of the remaining 14 provinces. (2) Chinese inter-provincial trade and distant trade were more beneficial for achieving the trade-related SDG targets in developed provinces (e.g., Beijing), which thus improved China's overall SDG target scores. In contrast, Chinese inter-provincial trade suppressed the trade-related SDG target scores of developing provinces (e.g., Guangxi). (3) Individual SDG indicators, SDG target bundles, and interactions among SDG indicators changed across both time and space. (4) The no-trade scenario in Hubei province during the COVID-19 pandemic will have a clearly inhibiting effect on China's overall SDG target scores. Besides, trade with adjacent provinces would improve Hubei's SDG target scores, while these trades have more negative effects (approximately 50-83% of provinces suffered from greater reductions in SDG target scores) on Hubei's adjacent provinces. Our study suggests the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of SDG indicators and their interactions deserve more attention, which can help identify the drivers behind these changing relationships.