Pandemic modelling: The impact of social distancing in Nordic countries

ABSTRACT

Background: Without pharmacologic interventions, the preferred strategy to combat COVID-19 is to slow the virus' spread via social distancing measures. The components of social distancing include school closure, restrictions on gatherings, non-essential business closure, stay at home orders and limitations on travel. Most countries have implemented many of these restrictions. Conversely, Sweden has not initiated these restrictions and instead has recommended that citizens avoid mass gatherings, which presents an opportunity to examine the effects of the components of social distancing on mortality in Nordic countries. Purpose: Investigate the impact of social distancing measures on fatalities associated with COVID-19. Method: COVID-19 fatalities, as reported by the World Health Organisation, were recorded for each of the Nordic countries from 6th February 2020 to 30th April 2020. The fatalities were compared using a Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Results: The normalised fatalities ranged significantly (1.87 to 129 deaths/population/km2) in the Nordic countries. Sweden was found to have a significantly higher risk of COVID-19 related mortality at the α=0.05 level as compared to Finland (HR=0.15;p<0.001) and Norway and Denmark (HR=0.23;p=0.002). Conclusion: The population-density normalised mortality in Sweden was significantly greater than other Nordic countries, possibly due to differences in the implementation of social distancing policies.