Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.
J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat
; 2022 Jun 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2245011
ABSTRACT
Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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