A Novel Mathematical Model That Predicts the Protection Time of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies.

ABSTRACT

Infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 pose a considerable threat to public health. Constructing a reliable mathematical model helps us quantitatively explain the kinetic characteristics of antibody-virus interactions. A novel and robust model is developed to integrate antibody dynamics with virus dynamics based on a comprehensive understanding of immunology principles. This model explicitly formulizes the pernicious effect of the antibody, together with a positive feedback stimulation of the virus-antibody complex on the antibody regeneration. Besides providing quantitative insights into antibody and virus dynamics, it demonstrates good adaptivity in recapturing the virus-antibody interaction. It is proposed that the environmental antigenic substances help maintain the memory cell level and the corresponding neutralizing antibodies secreted by those memory cells. A broader application is also visualized in predicting the antibody protection time caused by a natural infection. Suitable binding antibodies and the presence of massive environmental antigenic substances would prolong the protection time against breakthrough infection. The model also displays excellent fitness and provides good explanations for antibody selection, antibody interference, and self-reinfection. It helps elucidate how our immune system efficiently develops neutralizing antibodies with good binding kinetics. It provides a reasonable explanation for the lower SARS-CoV-2 mortality in the population that was vaccinated with other vaccines. It is inferred that the best strategy for prolonging the vaccine protection time is not repeated inoculation but a directed induction of fast-binding antibodies. Eventually, this model will inform the future construction of an optimal mathematical model and help us fight against those infectious diseases.