Bayesian Inference of a Discrete Fractional SEIRD Model

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a discrete fractional epidemic model SEIRD as an extension of the classical SEIR model, describing the dynamics of disease propagation in a population. Equilibrium points are computed and the existence stability nature at these points are discussed. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated using next generation matrix method. The estimation of the parameters is based on Bayesian inference. The numerical simulations were used to illustrate the stability of the discrete fractional order SEIRD epidemic model and to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. The model introduced is applied to real data concerning pandemic COVID-19 in Morocco. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.